According to one study Democrats are more likely to be optimistic compared to Republicans https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/rampage/wp/2015/11/18/the-optimism-gap-democrats-vs-republicans/?utm_term=.994b99413a97 . It is not surprising that liberal polls indicate win for Democrats (at national level for Hillary Clinton, at state level for Jon Ossoff) but often result in electoral losses. I want to share below some issues that what we may want to focus on and the messaging likely to resonate with red state trump fans. But first, I will share my insight on Trump’s hold on his base and why it may be stronger than we may imagine it to be.
We have already known that it is one individual in Republican party who who has an unshakable base. Regardless of any scandals, stories and Congressional hearings, Donald Trump’s base of loyalists has been more or less stable. His stable base will continue to determine the outcome of the races in red districts and his hold enables Republican strategists to better predict it and better strategize where to target their resources. The reason for his strong hold on his loyalists is that many of them are not consuming much information from most of the media (which he has successfully labeled as fake media) and Trump’s tweets and speeches at his rallies provide them the information they know. Trump speaks directly to his base through twitter. The likes and retweets of his tweets gives Republicans a pretty good insight into predicting the outcome of significant races and other issues. If Dems are not monitoring traffic around Mr. Trump’s tweets then they should begin to tightly monitor that. If even Donald Trump goes down in approval ratings in polls, that still remains somewhat shaky predictor for various reasons. One, on account of a lot of hype against Mr. Trump, there are some people who still stick with him but are reluctant to publicly declare that. Then there are people who disapprove of Trump but they want Republican party to succeed and so reluctantly they stay put in the camp and when Trump tweets his support of other Rep candidates then they like and retweet these. And then there are some who disapprove of Trump like a mother disapproving of her child and expecting the child to do better. I will reiterate, that for greater accuracy of electoral wins, Dems must strictly monitor the traffic around Trump’s tweets.
Democrats can’t win and may not be able to translate wins into effective government, unless we start talking to red states, to Trump’s base, to Republicans in general. We have heard a great deal that Dems just don’t have an appealing message. Some of this below information I am taking from my earlier blog titled “Open letter to Hillary Clinton Campaign” http://bit.ly/2bX40eU Please click on that link for more detailed description of the two Americas and the messaging we need to begin to unite the two Americas.
Moving ahead, I will repeat that we need to stop focusing on Donald Trump and we need to stop obsessing that every time his approval rating goes down a point or two then we have achieved a significant victory. His base is largely unshakable and without meaningfully addressing their concerns, we can’t keep looking for lucky breaks in his lower disapproval ratings. That is a non strategy strategy. Trump created his base by appealing to their feelings and views based on feelings don’t change easily. Dems need to start talking with his base about things that matter with direct impact on their lives – job creation to put more money into their pocket, opioid addiction that is tearing down their communities, healthcare with simple and easy to understand messages with heart.
Messages that are unlikely to work.
* Here’s what Trump is doing and we are different
* Don’t support that candidate, he or she is too close to Trump
* Trump’s healthcare plan spells disaster
MESSAGES SUCH AS BELOW MAY RESONATE BETTER
Messages more likely to work should address issues crucial to them and their feelings. Only fact based messages are unlikely to work in red states. Messages must address people’s feelings of being neglected, rejected, stressed and speak to real danger of how lives and livelihood caught in a downward spiral are not sustainable. Type of messages below should be delivered with real life stories. Oh… and seriously, DEMS NEED TO START FOCUSING IN BUILDING REAL, TACTICAL SOLUTIONS TO THESE ISSUES AND NOT JUST DELIVER RHETORIC FOR ELECTORAL WINS.
* Obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease remain major killers in stressful modern world and particularly impact poorer families caught between making basic ends meet and having less access to healthy eating. We want to ensure that regardless of wealth or station in life, all Americans get access to care for management of these chronic diseases. It will help red states, blue states, and all Americans and will help lower healthcare costs for everyone, if we can allow ramp up time for more enrolees.
* It is painful to see the impact of opioid addiction in our society; it is tearing apart communities and destroying families. It is intricately tied to the stresses of jobs, veteran’s health and impact on families, breakdown in family life and children growing up without the input of both parents. We want to address these in the healthcare changes we make. Instead of funding tax cuts for the wealthy with the health of the poor, we want to bring all sides to the table to understand imminent importance of addressing the growing opioid pandemic that threatens our society.
* Whites are productive members of our community who helped build this nation. We want to engage with you to achieve sustainable job growth.
* We are NOT a welfare party. We are a party of sensible economic policies because we cannot achieve sustainable prosperity by taking care of one group and neglecting the others’ needs. We want the wealthy to do well but we won’t stand for giving them tax cuts that are paid by poor’s health. To the extent that we may have ignored balancing everyone’s needs in the past, we are doubly committed to listening to everyone’s needs and bring everyone to the table.
* We see terrible devastation from bombs, gun and car attacks and we want to address safety using the tools of 21st century. We want to engage technology to monitor these. Instead of a physical wall, we can call this building virtual bridges where we can coordinate among our intelligence agencies and safety teams and coordinate with our allies to share information to enhance all our safety.
These are a few of the suggestions. Additionally, we, #Dems must stop excessive focus on Trump in our messages in red districts, although I concede everything about this administration is fascinating, when it is not infuriating or depressing.